8 charts I didn't "listen" to in 2012 that cost me my job

(but I am watching now!)

Welcome back Chronicle Crew.

It was 2011, I was at my desk looking at my charts and said to myself.

“The cycle is over."

If I am being honest with you, I didn't fully trust my instruments and instead relied on an strategy that NEVER works….hope.

A couple years later, commodities were officially in a bear market and I was let go from my job.

Don’t feel sorry, that’s not why I am writing this.

Experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want.

These are a collection of charts to time the next secular top in energy and commodities that I am keeping an eye on.

This first one is a repeat of last week’s post (HERE) so I will be brief.

Energy cycles, move in 6 stages:

• Stage 1: War ends, new supply comes online, demand slows and oil capitulates.

• Stage 2: There is a period of instability in oil producing regions.

• Stage 3: Low capital spending and industry consolidation.

• Stage 4: Debasement of the currency

• Stage 5: A new demand hub emerges & a global conflict begins.

• Stage 6: A “Hubbard Peak” fear of supply running out, prices goes parabolic along with capex

Then back to stage 1 to play out again.

Below is a table of the parallels in history.

#1 - My Roadmap for the cycles. There are 6 stages in every cycle. We are in stage 5

This next chart is my north star.

My first commandment.

It’s simply the price of oil divided by the S&P500 index on a monthly basis since the beginning of the industry.

#2 - Watch oil divided by the S&P 500.

Let’s stay on this chart for a second, a couple things to dissect.