84th Percentile Performance

The Gist: Energy equities have rallied sharply since last fall, but historically, momentum at the 84th percentile has not been a reliable signal of impending underperformance.

We are currently in the midst of the seasonal headwinds for oil stocks (HERE).

Looking back, breadth in the oil & gas sector—the percentage of oil & gas stocks that were higher month-over-month—reached record highs in April on a 12-month smoothed basis, as shown below.

At the same time, momentum in oil & gas stocks reached +46% year-over-year this past April.