Following in Rockefeller's footsteps - 115.5 years of O&G capex data.

The Gist (1) 1H24 annualized global “trackable” O&G capex translated to USD is down 2.8% y/y. On a 5-yr smooth basis, capex is growing in the mid-single digits (2) The productivity cycle will drive development costs and thus oil prices over the long-run and there is little sign the deflationary productivity cycle is back in vogue. (3) Companies continue to spend below long-term trends.

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Before being acquired by JP Morgan in 2000, Chase Bank was led for decades by David Rockefeller, the grandson of John D. Rockefeller (HERE).

David's connection to the oil and gas industry went beyond his family heritage.

He is believed to have played a role in facilitating the Shah of Iran's extraction to the U.S. following the 1979 revolution.

During the 1950s and 1960s, Chase Bank was among the largest lenders to Saudi Arabia when the country faced fiscal deficits.

For nearly 30 years, until the oil price crash of the mid-1980s, Chase produced a valuable report on oil and gas capital expenditures titled "Capital Investments of the World Petroleum Industry."

The survey provided a comprehensive and detailed overview of global investment, encompassing not only publicly traded, Western-oriented integrated companies and supermajors but also the National Oil Companies throughout the world.

The data was categorized not only by geographic region…

…but also by function, such as upstream, midstream and downstream activities.

I suspect that the publication ceased because Chase had to scale back its involvement in the energy sector due to the depressive energy environment as well as the LATAM debt crisis, which spread to the Savings and Loan (S&L) and banking industries.

I mention the Chase survey because when I first started producing the Crude Chronicles, one of the most frequent pieces of feedback I received was that my historical data focused solely on Western oil and gas companies and lacked information on the National Oil Companies (NOCs).

Two years later, I'm beginning to make some headway. While it's impossible to achieve a comprehensive view of global oil and gas capital expenditures (capex) like Chase once did—many of the world's producers, such as those in Libya, UAE, Iran, and now PDVSA, do not disclose such data—this doesn't mean I can't try.

Annualizing first half capital spending trends for those publicly traded companies & NOCs that have reported it appears that “trackable” O&G capex translated to U.S. dollars is down 2.8% y/y.