State-Level Data Never Sleeps

The Gist: While the EIA production numbers are on hold during the government shutdown, state level data whispers of a slowdown in production.

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Erratum!

For the record, after his post was published. It was brought to my attention that the EIA production numbers have NOT been affected by the shutdown. Nonetheless there is still some value to the alternative data sources.

A short post today.

In lieu of the government shutdown—which has delayed the release of reliable monthly production numbers—we’ll look at some alternative data sources.

One such source is the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC). However, before drawing the conclusion from the following chart that production is rolling over, it’s important to remember that TRC production data is often revised upward as additional information is reported, occasionally up to a year later.

The data currently shows production peaking a year ago, in October 2024 however the data is known for upward revisions, especially over the trailing 12 months.

The latest figure for July 2025—4,087,016 barrels per day—has since been revised up from the initial estimate of 4,003,169 barrels per day.

From the chart below, which compares the final numbers with the initial estimates, we can make a couple of observations.