Ok I hear you but thinking they may have finally proven to investors they have discipline in the face of higher prices…we’ll check back in 6-9 months :)
Yes please do. Something to note about that PE chart. If you zoom into some of those periods when multiples compressed you do see these quick pops in P/E but they are usually associated with a recession (‘51, 73/74, early 80s, 01/02, 08/09)
This all looks awesome and I love charts but I have not had nearly enough coffee this morning to understand this! 🙂 Will look up CC online too - lots of cool research here.
Very good. Reading this stuff is far more satisfying than reading about sissy green energy. Chart #21 looks like a possible descending triangle going back 25 years or so. This might project lower crude prices...but how low? Breaking the base of the triangle would mean prices going below $20. I don't see that happening. A return to the $50/60 area seems more likely especially if the world's economies continue to falter.
I love watching movies and reading about the wildcatters way back when. The risks, adventure and numbers of it all continue to intrigue me. Thanks, I am glad I found this site. There's no pandemic and covid crap to filter through...lol.
just wondering on your chart 16...do you think that the newly practiced discipline to conserve capex, increase dividends, share buybacks etc. and exercise some balance sheet conservatism rather than "drill baby drill "will change that historical PE compression in up cycles? My thesis is that investors will pay up a bit for the 'new' kind of energy company and we could finally see a PE expansion with steady to rising prices and energy would occupy a larger slice of the S&P?
Yea I hear you but I have to ask myself, if they havent got multiple expansion in the last two years than when are they going to get it? I fully admit I rely on history and cycles in how I view the world. This can and has in the past lead to missing the boat on some tectonic shifts but has also helped out a lot in the past. So I freely admit I could be wrong about multiples but for now I think multiple compression is still at play. TY for the question.
Ok I hear you but thinking they may have finally proven to investors they have discipline in the face of higher prices…we’ll check back in 6-9 months :)
Yes please do. Something to note about that PE chart. If you zoom into some of those periods when multiples compressed you do see these quick pops in P/E but they are usually associated with a recession (‘51, 73/74, early 80s, 01/02, 08/09)
This all looks awesome and I love charts but I have not had nearly enough coffee this morning to understand this! 🙂 Will look up CC online too - lots of cool research here.
Very good. Reading this stuff is far more satisfying than reading about sissy green energy. Chart #21 looks like a possible descending triangle going back 25 years or so. This might project lower crude prices...but how low? Breaking the base of the triangle would mean prices going below $20. I don't see that happening. A return to the $50/60 area seems more likely especially if the world's economies continue to falter.
I love watching movies and reading about the wildcatters way back when. The risks, adventure and numbers of it all continue to intrigue me. Thanks, I am glad I found this site. There's no pandemic and covid crap to filter through...lol.
Awesome charts - thanks for sharing!
just wondering on your chart 16...do you think that the newly practiced discipline to conserve capex, increase dividends, share buybacks etc. and exercise some balance sheet conservatism rather than "drill baby drill "will change that historical PE compression in up cycles? My thesis is that investors will pay up a bit for the 'new' kind of energy company and we could finally see a PE expansion with steady to rising prices and energy would occupy a larger slice of the S&P?
Yea I hear you but I have to ask myself, if they havent got multiple expansion in the last two years than when are they going to get it? I fully admit I rely on history and cycles in how I view the world. This can and has in the past lead to missing the boat on some tectonic shifts but has also helped out a lot in the past. So I freely admit I could be wrong about multiples but for now I think multiple compression is still at play. TY for the question.
Excellent analysis. Many thanks.