I'm calling it quits...(sort of)
Hey everyone,
This a mid-week post that is gonna go off script.
In fact it is a bit off the rails.
BUT I NEED YOUR HELP!
I’m gonna get straight to the point. I want to quit my job and do this blog as my full time thing.
I am on the cusp of giving my two weeks but as you can imagine there are a lot of risks.
I keep going back and forth with the decision I am about to make. Or not make.
So naturally I have to ask my community and the people that support me.
There is a poll below but before you take the poll let me give you some real talk!
If you read my one year anniversary post (HERE) you may have a flavor for my background.
After the last commodity bust, I left Wall Street to run a small business.
I have gone the entrepreneurial route before.
It was hard to say the least and it put my family through a lot.
Anyone that has run or is running a small business knows the struggles.
Unlike a regular “9-5” or W2, your pay check doesn’t show up every 15th and 1st of the month when you are an entrepreneur.
There is no annual bonus.
One minute you sign a new client or close a big sale and things are great, the next week you think you are going bankrupt.
It can put strains on your marriage, your relationships and when you are raising kids it affects them as well.
Covid put my business out of its misery.
Covid also gave me the boredom during lockdown to fire up my old charts and start this blog.
But looking back there were a lot of lessons learned.
A lot of mistakes in business that I now know not to repeat…but that doesn’t mean there are still others to be made.
My small business did teach me some basics when it comes to marketing.
It taught me that in the world of content marketing you need to show up consistently.
And above that, you need to build a community.
People need to know, like and trust you before they will ever buy from you.
Almost 60 weeks into the CC, I think I am doing the first and there are signs of the second.
In our small business, when we were trying to think of a new product or service to sell we would do one simple thing, ask our customers.
That’s why I am asking you today.
But I have a vision for the Crude Chronicles.
I would like to one day throw off these shackles of anonymity and get to know everyone out there.
I’ve been asked to talk on podcasts, Twitter space and conferences but I have had to turn them all down.
I don’t want to continue doing that.
I have plans in the future:
I want to put out some video content.
I want to create a oilfield service index going back ~80 year like I have with my Energy Index (HERE).
I want to dig up some sources that may have historical ARAMCO capex data or at least the pieces to it.
I want to put together a massive financial history of refining.
I want to publish some data on NOCs.
I want to continue to put out my annual capex report (HERE).
I want to continue to put out my annual ROCE report (HERE).
Even update my annual Finding & Development Costs post (HERE)
There are so many ideas I have but a couple hours every morning doesn’t cut it.
Working on the CC excites me.
For the last 2.5 years I have been getting up at 4am pouring my cold brew coffee and get cracking on inputting data or typing up the weekly post or making some crazy @$$ 100 year chart.
The amazing people I have interacted with whether it be via Zoom, comments, DM’s etc, has been awesome.
10 years ago people of your caliber would never have talked to me.
This truly is my passion.
But as we all know, passion doesn’t pay the bills. And passion doesn’t put your kids through college.
Cold hard cash does and that is why I am asking you to take the poll.
In my bones I feel we have a cycle. If you were to ask me, we are at a mix of stage 4 & 5 below in my road map that you have seen multiple times at this point.
We aren’t even close to stage 6 where thing get really interesting!
I have lost sleep over this decision I am about to make. Or not make.
What if my conversion rate sucks when I launch?
What if only 10 people sign up?
What if we have to dip into savings after finally clawing our way back?
What if things don’t turn out like the forecast in my excel model says and I have to go out again and find a job?
Where the hell am I gonna get a job?
How much strain is this gonna put on my wife and her job?
A month ago when I was first pondering this decision I was excited about it. Now I don’t quite know.
Listen! I don’t want you to simply vote yes out of sympathy.
That is NOT the intent of this post.
The intent of this post is to see if the risk is worth it.
Only you can answer the question below, if you feel you get more value out of this blog than the monthly fee then maybe consider a Yes.
If you feel the value isn’t there for you then vote No.
Before you spud a well, you better know there is some good rock down there.
So I just want to know whether or not I should spin this drill bit.
Much love. You guys and gals are the best
-CC
I think the question you ask is a dangerous one. It shouldn't be either / or. Either I keep my job or I quit my job and do this blog full time. The approach I suggest you consider is building your blog up so high with free subscribers that you can ask for a lesser amount, from a larger audience. The most common substack subscription price I keep seeing, over and over again, is $50 a YEAR. So, consider that as your benchmark, meaning HOW MANY PAID SUBSCRIBERS at $50 a year do you need to replace your income coming from your current job?? And build your free blog following high enough such that even if you lost 90% of your free subscribers when you switched to a paid model, you still had enough subscribers sticking with you paying up to cover your monthly/yearly obligations. At least that's how I would do it, if it were me. Good luck!
I like your stuff. I enjoy reading it and appreciate it. Unfortunately I am a modest retired guy who invests a little here and there but doesn’t pay much for info. I subscribe to Seeking Alpha but that is about it. I wish you well and hope there are others who see the value in your writing who agree to fund it, so you can follow your passion. I am just not that guy, and I am afraid, most of your readership might be kind of like me, unfortunately. Best wishes and good luck!!!